Oscars Week 2020: My Picks

2019 Oscar winner Mahershala Ali during Saturday rehearsals.

I wasn’t able to get the Las Vegas this year to double down on my incredible streak of picking Oscar winners. In sports gambling, they say if you pick sixty per cent winners, you’ll be rich. My success rate of picking winners? How about 57 out of 68 in the major categories over the last nine years since I started covering the Oscars. Yep, that’s money in the bank.

So now that I have established my Oscars dominance, let’s look at the Media Guy’s choices for this year’s big prizes on Sunday:

Best Picture
1917
Media Guy Thoughts: It’s hard to pick against the Sam Mendes-directed war movie. It’s nabbed the top accolades from Golden Globes as well as the Directors and Producers guilds. No other film can boast anything similar. It’s also peaking at the right time with more than $125 million at the domestic box office after a year in release and soared to number two just a weekend ago. Don’t underestimate Parasite, but most likely that film will take the International Film award.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Media Guy Thoughts: Zellweger is poised to become the 21st woman to win more than one acting Oscar (she won 16 years earlier for best supporting actress in Cold Mountain). There’s no denying that she was seemingly born to play the down-and-out Judy Garland in the last year of her life. She’s been the favorite all awards season in this spot. As sure of a bet as there is.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Media Guy Thoughts: At all of the Oscars events where actual voters are present, I spoke 32 who said they voted for Phoenix because they like an actor’s transformation into a role. I think you will agree that there was no more brazen act of transformation than Phoenix’s tugging, passionately carnal performance as the Joker. He’s widely voted by many critics to be the best actor of his generation. Those same critics can back up their ranking with awarding Phoenix his first Oscar. It’s happening.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Media Guy Thoughts: Toughest category on the board with a hall of fame cast vying for supporting actor prize: Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, along with Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman. None of these screen heroes quite delivered the complete, wide-ranging, performance as Pitt did. It’s his time and wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards let’s us know that many others agree.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Media Guy Thoughts: Everyone loves Marriage Story. Everyone loves Laura Dern. She’s been nominated but fell short twice. Oscar voters love to reward a career resurgence which bodes well for a win for Dern here.

Directing
Sam Mendes, 1917
Media Guy Thoughts: In the last seven years, the top two categories (Directing and Best Picture) was split between two movies five times. So for Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) fans, it’s entirely possible that if 1917 takes best picture honors, he could still take home the directing prize. When this type of split happens, the winner for directing usually comes from the larger, technically audacious film, which is why Mendes takes this no matter what.

Original Screenplay
Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won, Parasite
Media Guy Thoughts: I was leaning towards two-time original screenplay Oscar-winner Quentin Tarantino, but Bong Joon Ho brings too much momentum and heat and to be denied.